Thank you for contacting me about pre-Autumn Budget tax and spend speculation.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) has estimated that the Chancellor will have to find £41.2 billion in additional fiscal headroom at Autumn Budget either in the form of raising taxes, cutting spending, or abolishing her fiscal rules and borrowing more to finance day-to-day spending. This is truly astonishing after the Chancellor raised taxes by £40 billion at Autumn Budget 2024 then promised that she would never have to do so again.
The Chancellor has said that she will not break her fiscal rules and we know from her failed attempt to cut just £4.5 billion from the welfare budget at Spring Statement that her backbenchers will not allow any spending cuts which leaves the Chancellor with tax rises. As you say, in recent weeks we have heard that the Government are considering an inheritance tax raid, a property wealth tax, national insurance on landlords, a pensions raid, cuts to the Cash ISA limits, extending the income tax threshold freeze, hiking fuel duty, and a wealth tax. I challenged the Chancellor on the uncertainty this is causing for the economy and the public: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=177gr9DSmHo.
The Chancellor has failed to understand that the reason growth forecasts have been cut consistently since her failed Autumn Budget 2024 is because the Government is overtaxing the economy. As you say, the Government’s family farm tax and employer national insurance raid has had a detrimental impact on the economy and has led to significant job losses, falling real wage growth, and GDP growth stagnant at 0.1 per cent in Q2 2025. As the Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury – I’m aware of the effects of the NIC rise and you can watch me hold the Government to account on their cruel policies here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SwlNIZ6oH2I and you can read more about my thoughts on Family Farm Tax, here.
Meanwhile the Chancellor has signed off on inflation-busting pay rises for public sector trade union workers, huge increases to the welfare budget, and billions of pounds being spent on housing illegal immigrants.
The leader of the Opposition, Kemi Badenoch, has promised to “support the makers – those who work hard, generate wealth, create jobs and deliver vital public services”. That is a vision for Government that I endorse. The Chancellor must recognise she cannot just keep increasing taxes; record taxes are already making life too hard for working people and the bond markets will extract a heavy price if she gets this wrong again.
Thank you again for taking the time to contact me.
Sincerely,
